Cheltenham Betting | 2010

Day 3 - Cheltenham 16:40 race odds

Cheltenham Day 3 – Irish View

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Cheltenham Racecourse

World Hurdle (Grade 1) 3m – Cheltenham (Past Winners)

Statistics

• 9/9 - Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
• 8/9 - Aged 6,7 or 8 years-old
• 7/9 - Trained in the UK
• 7/9 - Returned 11/2 or less
• 3/9 - Won by the fav or jfav
• 2/9 - Won by a previous winner of the race

Andy Newton’s View

It’s Big Buck’s all the way here for most punters and although the bookmakers will be hoping for another result the current champ looks rock-solid in his bid to follow-uplast year’s win.

For many people Ruby Walsh doing the steering has been one of the big factors in this 7 year-olds surge to dominance in this sphere. Walsh has only been beaten once in the nine times he’s ridden Big Buck’s (fences and hurdles) and is yet to taste defeat since his return to the smaller obstacles (last six runs). With last year’s runner-up Punchestowns going chasing as well as scaring off the potential threat in Diamond Harry, when putting him in his place at Newbury last time, means the opposition to his crown has rather dried up.

However, all might not be lost for the value seekers – step forward Tidal Bay. This former Arkle winner is taking a similar route back the hurdles game as Big Buck’s has done after losing his way over fences in the last 12 months, and a runaway win in the Cleeve Hurdle (a decent trial for this race) back in January brings him right into the picture. He seemed to lose his confidence over fences after some sketchy rounds of jumping and the switch back to hurdles could be a really good move by his shrewd connections. We all know that Howard Johnson and Graham Wylie are no strangers to landing a touch in this race after Inglis Drever went into the history books back in 2008 by landing his third World Hurdle, and in Tidal Bay they could just have a horse to take on the hot-pot.

In eight visits to Prestbury Park (both codes) Tidal Bay has only finished out of the frame once, and that was a close fourth in the Ryanair Chase 12 months ago. While, if you look at his overall record over hurdles then there’s even more evidence to suggest he’s a banker for a place at worse: 1-1-1-2-2-1-1.

That said, when looking back at the trends everything still points to Big Buck’s, with current form, age, price and being a previous winner all on his side, while at 9 years-old Tidal Bay falls down on the age stat – Only Inglis Drever has won as a 9 year-old in the last 21 years!

Of the others, Alan King’s Karabak is certainly another that punters will cling to as an alternative to the jolly. He gets plenty of positives on the trends, but he was well and truly put in his place by Big Buck’s at Newbury last time (beaten 3 ½ lengths), and although he looks another strong contender for a place it’s hard to see him getting the better of an on-song Big Buck’s.

To some the drying ground might be a slight negative for the favourite as, like Inglis Drever, he seems to hit a flat spot in his races and if that comes at a time when the others are quickening then he could have too much ground to make up. I can see where people are going with that, but let’s not forget he’s been just as dangerous on good-to-soft and quicker in the past and, for me, this is not something for his backers to worry about with the Cheltenham hill certain to bring those back to him.

My final word, and it could be a total stab in the dark, is to give one of the big outsiders a quick mention. Powerstation is the animal in question and although I can hear you laughing there is a little bit of method to my madness. Ok, so Powerstation is a 10 year-old now and that’s a big negative on him actually winning the race, but at a rewarding double-figure price all I’m looking for is a place. My reasoning here is that he’s got a great festival record. He’s been here three times before and finished 2nd in the Brit Insurance Hurdle @ 9/1 (2006), 2nd in the Coral Cup @ 12/1 (2007) and third in this race @ 25/1 last year – therefore at around 50/1 he could just send place backers home happy once more.

Recommended Bets:

2pts e/w – Tidal Bay
1pt to be placed – Powerstation

The best odds on the Champion Chase

Champion Chase (Grade 1) 2m – Cheltenham (Past Winners)

Statistics

• 8/9 - Returned 5/1 or less
• 8/9 - Placed last time out
• 8/9 - Had a RPR of 170+
• 7/9 - Trained in the UK
• 7/9 - Aged 8 years-old or younger
• 7/9 - Won their previous race
• 4/9 - Won by the favourite
• 3/9 - Trained by Paul Nicholls
• 3/9 - Ran at Newbury last time
• 2/9 - Won by a previous winner of the race (Moscow Flyer & Master Minded)

Andy Newton’s thoughts

Will it Master Minded first and the rest nowhere? Well, on official ratings it certainly does look a one-horse race with the two-times winner having 5lbs in hand of the second highest-rated, Twist Magic, and a big-looking 21lbs to play with over his nearest rival in the betting, Kalahari King.

However, we all know that racing is not that simple and although the champ looked right back to his best last time in the Game Spirit at Newbury you could argue he didn’t beat much with Mahogany Blaze rated 28lbs inferior, Fix The Rib 22lbs lower and Voy Por Ustedes clearly running over a trip too short for him these days. Every ‘super-horse’ has its kryptonite, something that the layers will try and cling to, and some might feel Master Minded’s could be his jumping.  Despite winning at Newbury last time by 13 lengths he made a right hash of the final fence and although Ruby has since gone on record as saying it was “pilot error” it’s worth remembering that he fell twice in his early days in France and unseated Sam Thomas at Exeter on his first start in this country.

That said, for me this jumping thing has only been mentioned since Newbury and on the whole in his last 10 races, including two QM Champion Chases and a Tingle Creek, he’s been virtually foot perfect – while he’s proven over these tricky fences.

If we take in the key race trends then these further back up just what an outstanding chance the jolly has. Eight of the last nine have returned 5/1 or less and been placed last time out, while 7/9 where trained in the UK, aged 8 or younger and came into the race having won their last start – All trends that are positive ticks in Master Minded’s case. Add in that past winners of the race have fared well with Moscow Flyer and of course Master Minded landing the race twice each in the past decade.

Finally, not that we need any more standout stats, it’s worth noting that a certain Mr Nicholls has the best recent record of any trainer, winning the race three times in recent years, while 33% of winners came here after running in the Game Spirit – a race Master Minded won last month! Phewww – well, based on that lot, I think it’s safe to say Master Minded will be a tough nut to crack as he bids to join Badsworth Boy as a three-time winner of this race.

Of the others, Twist Magic has been a different horse this term, winning the Tingle Creek for a second time as well as slamming Petit Robin at Ascot in the Victor Chandler Chase in January. Make no mistake he’s a very good horse, but for some reason he doesn’t seem to excel at Cheltenham – fallen twice and finished a tailed-off sixth (beaten 52l) in Master Minded’s first QM win. For me, he’s a much better horse at his beloved Sandown and with Ruby in the plate – in the 10 times the silver fox has steered him he’s won a massive seven times!

Kalahari King was a close second in the Arkle 12 months ago and generally horses that have run well in that race have gone onto be big players in the QM Chase in the years to come. He surprised his handler, Ferdy Murphy, when winning a decent handicap under a big weight on his seasonal reappearance last month when he thought he might need the race. On that running he looks sure to give Master Minded plenty to think about. He’s also yet to finish out of the first two over fences (from nine outings), but this race has generally gone to a younger horse in the last decade with Moscow Flyer the only horse to break this trend when he won it as a 9 and 11 year-old.

Big Zeb got back to winning ways in his favoured native land when taking a Grade 2 at Punchestown in January, but he’s got plenty to find with Twist Magic on their Tingle Creek running, while he’s yet to sparkle at the UK tracks and actually fell in this race 12 months ago.

The final one worthy of a mention is, of course, last year’s Arkle winner Forpadydeplasterer. Winning form at the festival is a big plus and, like I’ve already said, Arkle winners have done well here. He’s another that has a fantastic record over fences, having been in the first two in all of his eight runs, but he’s not won since his Arkle triumph and despite this track clearly suiting his battling style (4th in Ballymore Hurdle in 2008 too) I think a place is the best he can hope for.

In conclusion, not that you need any more convincing, I thought I’d bring to your attention another interesting statistic that’s raised its head. Over the past 5 years there have been 60 Grade 1 contests and of that number a staggering 50% (30) have been won by Paul Nicholls, Alan King, Nicky Henderson or Willie Mullins. I think you’ll agree that’s quite an amazing stat, which further backs up the favourite’s chance – unless, of course, you fancy Alan King’s Oh Crick or one of the Willie Mullins pair, Barker or Golden Silver!

Recommended Bets:

5pts win Master Minded
1/2 pt forecast: 1st Master Minded 2nd Kalahari King
1/2 pt forecast: 1st Master Minded 2nd Forpadydeplasterer

Champion Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m – Cheltenham (Past Winners)

Statistics

• 8/9 – Aged between 6-9 years-old
• 7/9 – Won their previous race
• 6/9 – Aged either 7 or 8 years-old
• 5/9 – Trained in Ireland
• 5/9 – Had a RRP of 170+
• 3/9 – Won by the fav or jfav
• 3/9 – Ran at Wincanton last time out
• 2/9 – Won at Leopardstown last time out
• 2/9 – Won by a previous winner of the race

Andy Newton’s View

Excitement and disappointment are emotions we’re all going to experience in different guises over the next week or so as it’s time to strap yourself in for the best four days of jumps racing IN THE WORLD!

Tuesday gets started with one of the biggest bankers of the whole festival in the shape of Dunguib, and win or lose this single result will go some way to determining if it’s going to be the bookies or the punters that come out on top in 2010. First up of the Championship contests is the Champion Hurdle and of the four main races this is by far the trickiest to unravel.

A few weeks back there were at least six with very strong chances, but although some runners have been doing their own version of the hokey-cokey – in the race one minute and out the next – at the time of writing ALL the main protagonists are still heading to post.

Last year’s third, Binocular, was the first big name have a scare after the Henderson team felt he wasn’t quite right a few weeks back, but they left him in the race just in case.

This news saw his price drift to a massive 999/1 on the exchanges, with his participation looking very unlikely. However, the horse took a turn for the better and after the experts found nothing wrong with him last week he returned to training and is now as low as 8/1 (BestPrice 10/1) to land the spoils – a great trading opportunity for any of you lucky enough to snap up a three-figure price.

Now a 6 year-old Binocular at least has that 5 year-old age trend behind him (2 winners in the last 25 years), but more worrying for his supporters is that this year’s race looks a tougher heat than 12 months ago, while there are still question marks about the track. Ok, so he’s been placed both times he’s run here at Prestbury Park, and he wasn’t stopping last year, but he’s still not won here! He’s also been well beaten twice by Go Native this season and with that runner lining up again he’ll need to return to his very best if he’s to go two places better this time.

Looking at the recent race trends then there’s only five horses that can possible win. Ok, so none of these are 33/1 outsiders, but at least we can put a line through a few of the better fancied ones like Starluck and Zaynar, mainly based on their age (both 5 year-old) and the fact they are both coming here having not won their previous race (7 of the last 9 winners). No, I hear you say – Starluck did win last time – Yes, he did, but that was on the all weather at Kempton and not in the hustle and bustle of a competitive hurdle.

So, based on the trends the ones to concentrate on are – Go Native, Punjabi, Medermit, Solwhit and Khyber Kim. I know all are nearer the top, than the bottom, of the betting but based on key stats like – age and form coming into the race then it will be a shock to me if one of this bunch doesn’t triumph.

Don’t worry I’m not going to be a coward and leave it there as we can still take the trends a bit further, but then it will just come down to your own personal opinions. If we look again at the age then we’ll in fact see that six of the last nine winners were aged either 7 or 8 year-old, ruling out Medermit (6) and should he take his chance Solwhit (6). That leaves us with Khyber Kim, last year’s champ Punjabi and the current £1mill WBX bonus chasing favourite Go Native.

I certainly wouldn’t put you off any of the trio as they’ve all got some huge pluses on their side, but if you want to be 100% strict on the stats then I guess you have to side with Go Native with the favourite winning 33% of recent runnings, while 5 of the last 9 victors have been trained across the Irish Sea. That said, at around 7/1 Punjabi and 9/1 Khyber Kim then the advice is to have a small each-way cover on that pair as well as going in with Go Native to win.

Profile of my Trio:
Go Native: He’ll have exchange WBX crying all the way to the bank if he becomes Noel Meade’s first winner of the race after landing the first two legs (Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdle) of the £1mill bonus, and with bundles of pace he could just have too much toe for his rivals. He’s already won at the festival after winning the Supreme Novices, from Medermit, 12 months ago, while the expected faster ground conditions will also be to his liking.

Punjabi: The 22/1 winner of this race last year and with returning champions fairing well in recent years (Istabraq and Hardy Eustace) then he’ll be popular. For me, he’s not really been given the credit for what he achieved last year and although it’s common knowledge that he takes a bit of time to get to full fitness each year, a recent victory at Kempton would have certainly helped his cause. Zaynar’s shock defeat at Kelso a few weeks back was also a slight blessing in disguise for his supporters as his pilot from last year, Barry Geraghty, will now take the reins.

Khyber Kim: His trainer, Nigel Twiston-Davies, is another looking for his first win in this race and if he does land the spoils then he’ll be aiming for a Champion Hurdle/Gold Cup double (last done by Kim Bailey in 1995) with Imperial Commander later in the week. This former Henderson inmate rather lost his way in 2008 and the best part of 2009, but his handler thought he might have been feeling something and after some Twiston-Davies magic he looks back to his best. He won the Greatwood here in good style back in November and then followed up in the Boylesports.com International, having Punjabi, Medermit and Celestial Halo in behind.

Recommended Bets:

4pts win - Go Native
0.75pt e/w – Punjabi
0.75pt e/w – Khyber Kim